Tag Archives: Obama
Election is basically over according to Intrade
Posted on 31. Aug, 2012 by Harvey Sax.
If you haven’t heard of Intrade, you probably are outside leading a normal life. For those of you that haven’t, it’s the popular betting site that concentrates on political events. According to the Washington Post ” The site’s collective wisdom tends to be more reliable than than the cadre of professional pundits when it comes to forecasting election results. (And, yes, we are including ourselves in the “professional pundit” category — for better and worse.) In 2008, bettors got only two states wrong — Indiana and Missouri. Bettors thought Indiana would go Republican and Missouri would go Democratic. Neither prediction was right. Those two states canceled each other out, however, keeping the site very close to the actual electoral college total. In 2004, the site got every state right.”
The latest odds after the Republican convention, show Romney got zero bounce from the convention. Romney is just 43% chance to win versus Obama at 56.8%. Those are bad odds for someone that should have drawn a lot closer. These were pretty much the odds going into the convention and based on Intrade, Romney got no bounce.
My own read, Romney would make a great President and boy this country needs a turn-around artist, no make that a turn around team. But at any rate there is no denying that the market loves Obama or more accurately Ben Bernanke and easy money. The market has risen more under Obama than any but one President, Truman, since World War II. The bull is roaring!
Analysis: Obama presidency great for stocks. Will it help him? – Yahoo! Finance
Posted on 10. Aug, 2012 by Harvey Sax.
Reuters – Barack Obama often gets slammed for his stewardship of the U.S. economy, but for stock investors, hes been one of the best presidents since World War Two.At 1,400, the S&P 500 on Friday was closing in on a four-year high and was up 74 percent since January 20, 2009, the day Obama took office. Not since Dwight Eisenhowers first term has a president had such a strong run for their first term.That rally might be just enough to get Obama re-elected, making him the first sitting president in the post-war era to win a second term with a jobless rate higher than 7.2 percent.
via Analysis: Obama presidency great for stocks. Will it help him? – Yahoo! Finance.
Obama’s evolution: Behind the failed ‘grand bargain’ on the debt – The Washington Post
Posted on 18. Mar, 2012 by Harvey Sax.
Obama’s evolution: Behind the failed ‘grand bargain’ on the debt
View Photo Gallery — In the summer of 2011, the White House was embroiled in a battle with Republican leaders over legislation to increase the debt ceiling and avert the country from defaulting.
By Peter Wallsten, Lori Montgomery and Scott Wilson, Published: March 17
President Obama had just arrived home, walking across Lafayette Square after attending Sunday services with his family at St. John’s Church. In the West Wing, Obama ducked into the spacious office of his chief of staff, where he found his negotiating team huddled with two leading Republicans and a passel of aides.
via Obama’s evolution: Behind the failed ‘grand bargain’ on the debt – The Washington Post.
Nothing much wants to make this market go down but I guarantee you this one will
Posted on 19. Feb, 2012 by Harvey Sax.
Obama nears his nuclear moment By Edward Luce
At the start of Barack Obama’s term, few moments better crystallised America’s change of face than his “New Day” video address to the Iranian people. Ending with a salutation in Farsi, Mr Obama offered Iran a new era of “co-operation”. It followed from the promise in his inaugural address to “extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist”.
FACT SHEET: President Obama’s Plan to Help Responsible Homeowners and Heal the Housing Market | The White House
Posted on 01. Feb, 2012 by Wilensky.
From: The White House
“In his State of the Union address, President Obama laid out a Blueprint for an America Built to Last, calling for action to help responsible borrowers and support a housing market recovery. While the government cannot fix the housing market on its own, the President believes that responsible homeowners should not have to sit and wait for the market to hit bottom to get relief when there are measures at hand that can make a meaningful difference, including allowing these homeowners to save thousands of dollars by refinancing at today’s low interest rates. That’s why the President is putting forward a plan that uses the broad range of tools to help homeowners, supporting middle-class families and the economy.”
The full plan can be viewed here:
The Roof Has Been Raised: $16.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling
Posted on 26. Jan, 2012 by Wilensky.
Well, it’s looking like the Senate was unable to muster enough votes to reject the newest debt ceiling hike in a 52 to 44 vote. Due to take effect this Friday, we will be looking at a new ceiling of $16.4 trillion with our current levels reaching the $15.4 trillion mark.
From Zerohedge:
“Since roughly $100 billion was plundered from Pension Funds in the past month, The US will have about $15.4 trillion in debt with the Monday DTS. The question then is how long will the $1 trillion in debt capacity last: at $125 billion/month it won’t be enough to carry the US past the election without another massive debt ceiling spectacle.While Congress recently voted down the increase in the US debt ceiling, that vote was largely irrelevant. And all that matters is how the Senate will vote. Watch it live in progress below. It is virtually unlikely that the process of debt ceiling increase will be overturned so within minutes the US should have a brand spaking new debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion.”
Not to mention Treasuries just hit an all time low yesterday, now offering a tantalizing real yield of -2.26 based on 3% inflation. Ouch.
via Update: America Has A $16.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling In 52-44 Senate Vote | ZeroHedge.
Dueling versions of the State of the Union -who’s got it right CNN or WSJ?
Posted on 23. Jan, 2012 by Harvey Sax.
There are major implications for short-term trading here. Natural gas E&P companies were the biggest gainers today while the drillers like BAS were some of the biggest losers on the idea that natural gas prices are bottoming since Chesapeake Energy announced major curbs on drilling due to collapsing natural gas prices. If Obama sounds sympathetic to nat gas and promotes it in any kind of meaningful way, BAS and others could rocket.
State of the Union to offer a blueprint for the economy By Jessica Yellin, CNN Chief White House Correspondentupdated 5:29 PM EST, Mon January 23, 2012
A source says President Obama will propose tax reform, clean energy incentivesObamas address will focus on manufacturing, energy, education and valuesSources: Obama will discuss “insourcing,” or bringing back jobs from overseasThis will be the presidents third State of the Union addressWashington CNN — President Barack Obama will use Tuesdays State of the Union address to frame the message of his re-election campaign.The annual speech to Congress will lay out in clear terms a theme hes been repeating recently about economic inequality and a government that should ensure “a fair shake” for all.
via State of the Union to offer a blueprint for the economy – CNN.com.
Obama to Spotlight Energy
State of the Union Speech Will Call for Expanding U.S. Oil and Gas Production
By DEBORAH SOLOMON And LAURA MECKLER
President Barack Obama will use his State of the Union speech on Tuesday to call for an increase in domestic energy production, said people familiar with the plans.
Mr. Obama is expected to tout the economic and energy security benefits of increased U.S. oil and gas production, a message unlikely to sit well with some of the President’s environmental supporters but which could blunt industry
Bloomberg NewsU.S. natural gas production is to get new support. Above, a pipeline crew working in North Dakota in October.Mr. Obama’s speech is expected to call for increased oil and gas production and highlight a drop in U.S. oil imports, although some of that decrease stems from reduced demand amid a weak economy.
Get your federal hand out guide
Posted on 23. Jan, 2012 by Harvey Sax.
Apparently, half of the population is on the dole. So if you are not getting yours, hopefully this guide will set you in the right direction.
No budget deal, no market debacle- Obama’s education
Posted on 20. Nov, 2011 by Harvey Sax.
There could be a short-term hiccup in markets when it becomes apparent there is no bi-partisan deal but its likely to be muted. The $1.2 trillion on compulsory cuts they agreed to last summer will kick in until they agree to abrogate that. That’s when the market will swoon. Right now a compulsory deal seems far superior to a negotiated deal. At least it starts whacking down the monstrous defense department budget without inflicting real suffering on people’s medicare and Medicaid programs just yet. Even Conservative blowhard CNBC columnist, Larry Kudlow, (who I know from my Bear Stearns happy days. He was chief economist and I lowly lackard conveying every utterance of his to my clients), even likes the idea of the sequestration. Just the word sequestration sound like they might even gather up some money to pay off the creditors. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed, though, that the special committee doesn’t come up with something. It will be sure be less than the $1.2 trillion and go over like a lead balloon.
Oh, and on the subject of Obama, he’s smarter this time around. He’s street smart saying to congress you can fool me once,shame on you but fool me twice shame on me. He’s not getting dragged into this dog fight. He’s acting Presidential. You forsake my advice and help the last time. I’m not falling for this obvious trap. Don’t you want your leaders to be smart? He’s also waving good-bye to Bush-era tax cuts that he grudgingly extend to 2012. Come 2013, no Bush tax cuts, $1.2$ trillion in cuts. That’s gotta help some, right?
None of this is good of course for public sentiment. Whether it helps Democrats or Republicans get elected is pretty obvious. The Republicans are just determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory IMHO. But then the bigger question, who’s better for the market, Donkeys or Elephants? Just based on past immediate performance the donkey seems to do better until the elephant drops a turd on them like they did last August. Of course we’re going to wake up one day and realize the emperor is wearing no clothes (country is broke) but apparently the entire world has become a nudist colony and you have to say to your self does it really matter anymore?
Obama jobs speech venue part of election strategy
Posted on 07. Sep, 2011 by Maxwell Leary.
(Reuters) – President Barack Obama’s use of a rare joint session of Congress to deliver a jobs speech on Thursday reflects a political strategy to try to blame Republicans for an economy at risk of sliding back into recession.
The choice of venue — the Republican-controlled House of Representatives — is aimed at sending a clear message to voters that if his plan to reduce high unemployment is blocked by Congress, it is Republicans and not the White House standing in the way of job growth.
With unemployment stubbornly high and most Americans unhappy with his handling of the economy, Obama’s speech is part of a 2012 election strategy to shift some of the blame for the struggling economy onto Congress and to portray it as obstructionist.
“It’s very important for the president to invoke Congress from the very beginning of this round in the jobs debate,” said Jared Bernstein, chief economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden until April 2011.
“Because if Congress in general, and the House Republicans in particular, block his agenda, he needs to be able to explain to the American people who’s standing between them, their jobs, their paychecks and economic opportunities.”
Full article available @:
Obama Cancels Ozone Rules After Lobbying Push From Business
Posted on 02. Sep, 2011 by Maxwell Leary.
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama quashed proposed rules on ozone from the Environmental Protection Agency, agreeing with Republicans and industry to withdraw the costliest regulation being considered by the administration.
Obama said he is seeking to reduce regulatory burdens as the economy recovers, and said the EPA would weigh tighter standards on ozone, which causes smog, in two years.
“Ultimately, I did not support asking state and local governments to begin implementing a new standard that will soon be reconsidered,” Obama said today in a statement.
The EPA’s proposed regulations for ground-level ozone would have revised rules issued during President George W. Bush’s administration in 2008. EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson has said those rules wouldn’t stand up to legal scrutiny. The EPA’s proposal would have cost $19 billion to $90 billion, according to the White House.
The EPA will revisit the ozone standard in 2013 as required by law, Jackson said today in a statement. Business groups, which joined Republicans to protest that environmental and other U.S. rules under consideration would further weaken the economy, applauded Obama’s decision, as health and environmental groups derided it as capitulating to business.
Full article available @:
Obama to Tap Krueger as Top Economist
Posted on 29. Aug, 2011 by Maxwell Leary.
President Barack Obama on Monday plans to nominate Princeton University’s Alan Krueger to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a White House official said.
If confirmed by the Senate, Mr. Krueger, a labor economist, is likely to provide a voice inside the administration for more-aggressive government action to bring down unemployment and, particularly, to address long-term joblessness.
Mr. Krueger, 50 years old, returned to Princeton a year ago after serving as assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy during the first two years of the Obama administration—which means he has recently cleared the sometimes treacherous Senate confirmation process.
He would succeed Austan Goolsbee, who left earlier this month to reclaim his teaching post at the University of Chicago.
Mr. Krueger has been on Princeton’s faculty since 1987, the year he earned his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. He did a stint as chief economist at the Labor Department during the Clinton administration.
The work he has done in academia ranges from attempts to explain why job growth wasn’t stronger during the 2000s, to findings that increases in the minimum wage don’t depress employment, to a work showing that terrorists often come from middle-class—and often college-educated—backgrounds.
Full article available @:
Obama Talks to Buffett About Economy
Posted on 23. Aug, 2011 by Maxwell Leary.
President Barack Obama, preparing for a post-Labor Day speech with plans for stimulating the economy, talked with billionaire Warren Buffett about how to boost job creation and spur growth.
“The president and Mr. Buffett discussed the overall outlook on the economy and the reaction to the headwinds we’ve experienced over the last couple of months,” said Josh Earnest, an administration spokesman. “They talked a little bit about some possible measures that would spur investment and increase economic growth and they also talked about some measures that could address the long-term fiscal situation in this country.”
Obama placed the call yesterday to the chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), who has served as an informal adviser to the president, Earnest said. The president also talked with Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally about developments in the automotive and manufacturing sectors of the economy.
Obama plans to give an address on the economy shortly after the U.S. Labor Day holiday, which is Sept. 5. In conjunction with actions to shrink the nation’s long-term deficit, Obama is considering steps to give a quick boost to employment, including an expanded infrastructure spending program, tax incentives for hiring workers, a cut in the payroll tax paid by employers and worker retraining programs.
Republican Opposition
Any measures to spur the economy that require additional government spending are likely to run into opposition from congressional Republicans, who control the House of Representatives.
One idea that has aroused interest among the president’s advisers is a Georgia program that lets workers receiving unemployment insurance train for jobs at businesses at no cost to the employer, said a person familiar with deliberations.
At a town-hall meeting last week in Atkinson, Illinois, Obama praised the Georgia initiative as “a smart program.” The Georgia Works program lets jobless workers continue to collect unemployment insurance while a new employer trains them on the job for eight weeks. After what amounts to a no-cost trial period for a potential new employee, the company may hire or pass on the person.
“You’re essentially earning a salary and getting your foot in the door into that company,” Obama said. “If they hire you full-time, then the unemployment insurance is used to subsidize you getting trained and getting a job.”
Full article available @:
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